IPO Allotment Chance Calculator (India): Retail, sHNI and bHNI
Your odds of an allotment per application, worked out as the basis of allotment does.
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SEBI ICDR Regulations 32 and 49 · Schedule XIV basis of allotment · Rules used
Category by category
| Category | Chance | Applications | Allottees | Minimum allotment | Shares available |
|---|
Several family PANs or one bigger bid?
Rules used and official sources
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Results are estimates for general information and planning, not financial advice. Banks and institutions may calculate differently (rounding, fees, rate changes). Confirm figures with your lender or a qualified adviser before deciding.
About the IPO Allotment Chance Calculator (India): Retail, sHNI and bHNI
When a main-board IPO is oversubscribed, the retail portion is not shared out in proportion to what people bid. Under regulation 49 of the SEBI ICDR Regulations each retail allottee gets at least one minimum lot, so when there are more applications than lots, the winners are picked by lottery — and every application has the same chance, whatever its size. The non-institutional portion works the same way with a bigger minimum: every sHNI (₹2–10 lakh) and bHNI (over ₹10 lakh) allottee gets the smallest number of lots worth more than ₹2 lakh.
Enter the price, the lot size and, for each category, the shares offered and the times subscribed from the exchange’s bid details — and the number of applications if you have it. You get the chance for one application in each category, how many applications can be allotted, the shares you can expect, and whether applying from several family PANs beats one bigger bid. Everything is worked out in your browser.
How to use it
- Enter the upper end of the price band and the lot size. The calculator shows the retail maximum (the most lots under ₹2 lakh) and the NII minimum.
- For each category enter the shares offered and the times subscribed, from the bid details on the NSE or BSE public issue page.
- Add the number of applications in a category if you know it. Without it the applications are estimated from an average bid you choose — 1 lot for retail gives the lowest, most cautious chance.
- Enter the lots in your retail application and how many family members with their own PAN and demat account will apply.
- Read the chance per application, the table by category and the family comparison. Copy the summary or download it as CSV — with a pass, or after unlocking this result.
Examples
1,75,000 minimum lots for 2,00,000 applications: each has an 87.5% chance (7 in 8), whatever it bid.
Example B of Schedule XIV of the ICDR Regulations.
Every applicant gets one lot and 12.5% of the rest of the bid: 16 lots (320 shares) get about 58 shares.
Example A of Schedule XIV.
The minimum NII application is 340 shares (17 lots, just over ₹2 lakh); 1,471 can be allotted, so each application has a 2.94% chance.
Three 1-lot applications: 27.1% chance of at least one lot. One PAN bidding 3 lots: still 10%.
How retail shares are allotted
A retail individual investor bids for up to ₹2 lakh (regulation 2(1)(vv)). If the shares in the retail portion are enough for every valid application to get one lot, everyone gets a lot and the rest is shared out in proportion to the bids above one lot. If not, the number of lots available decides how many applications win: the registrar draws them by lottery, the same share of the applicants at every bid size, and each winner gets one lot. So in a heavily subscribed issue a 13-lot bid has the same chance as a 1-lot bid, and blocks thirteen times the money.
sHNI and bHNI
Regulation 32(3A) splits the non-institutional portion: one third for applications of more than ₹2 lakh up to ₹10 lakh (sHNI, small NII) and two thirds for applications above ₹10 lakh (bHNI, big NII). Under regulation 49(4A) every allottee gets at least the minimum application size — the smallest multiple of the lot worth more than ₹2 lakh — and Schedule XIV applies the same method to both sub-categories. A bHNI winner therefore gets that minimum too, not ₹10 lakh of shares, and a bigger bid does not raise the chance. The unsubscribed part of one sub-category may be allotted to the other.
Where the numbers come from
During the issue the exchanges publish the bid details of each category — shares offered or reserved and shares bid, as times subscribed — on the public issue pages of NSE and BSE. The chance depends on the number of applications, not only on the times subscribed: 20 times subscribed means a 1-in-20 chance only if everyone bid one lot. Where the number of applications in a category is published — the registrar’s basis of allotment gives the final count of valid applications — enter it.
The category sizes follow regulation 32: in an issue under regulation 6(1) at least 35% goes to retail investors and at least 15% to non-institutional investors; under regulation 6(2) at most 10% and 15%.
The maths
- Allottees possible = shares available ÷ minimum allotment, rounded as in Schedule XIV.
- If the applications are more than that, chance = allottees possible ÷ applications.
- With several applications from different PANs, chance of at least one lot = 1 − (1 − chance)^applications.
Limitations
- These are probabilities from the subscription figures, not a forecast of your allotment or of the listing price. The registrar’s basis of allotment is final.
- Bids rejected for technical reasons are not known until the basis of allotment; fewer valid applications mean a better chance than shown.
- Employee and shareholder reservations, the qualified institutional and anchor portions, and SME issues (with their own rules) are not covered.
- Spill-over is applied only between the two NII sub-categories; how an unsubscribed retail or NII portion moves between categories is set by each offer document.
- Family applications are treated as independent draws, which is very close for categories with thousands of applications.
Privacy
Everything happens in your browser. What you enter or open here is not uploaded or stored by MySmartCoPilot.
Frequently asked questions
What do I get without a pass?
Without a pass, IPO Allotment Chance Calculator (India): Retail, sHNI and bHNI shows the chance for one retail application in full, with the bid limits and the first row of the category table; every other figure is hidden. Until you unlock it, the result can’t be downloaded or copied. A Pro, Premium or Ultimate pass, a one-time payment that never renews, unlocks the full result. The pricing page lists the passes and their prices.
Does applying for more lots raise my chance in a retail IPO?
Not when the issue is oversubscribed beyond the minimum lots available. Then the winners are drawn by lottery, every application has the same chance, and a winner gets one lot. More lots only help when every applicant gets a lot and the rest is shared in proportion.
What is my chance in an oversubscribed IPO?
For retail: the shares in the retail portion ÷ the lot size gives the lots available; divide by the number of valid applications. 35 lakh shares in lots of 20 for 2 lakh applications is 1,75,000 ÷ 2,00,000 = 87.5%.
How many shares does a bHNI winner get?
The NII minimum application size — the smallest number of lots worth more than ₹2 lakh — the same as an sHNI winner, unless there are enough shares for every applicant.
Does applying from family members’ PANs help?
In a retail lottery, yes: each application is drawn on its own, so three applications with a 10% chance each give a 27.1% chance of at least one lot. Each must be in the member’s own name, PAN and demat account; read the offer document’s rules on multiple bids.
Where do I find the number of applications?
Use the bid details on the NSE and BSE public issue pages for shares offered and times subscribed. If a category’s applications are published, enter them; the registrar’s basis of allotment states the final count. Without it, the calculator estimates from the average bid you set.