Trading Expectancy & Break-even Win Rate Calculator
What each trade earns on average, and the win rate you need to break even.
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- Free preview: the expectancy per trade in full, with the first rows of each table (up to 3) and a watermarked chart; every other figure is hidden.
- Locked until you unlock it: download and copy.
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Expectancy at every win rate
At your payoff and costs; your win rate and the break-even win rate are marked.
Your results added up
The running total after each result, costs taken off.
Expectancy by win rate, after costs
How this was calculated
Locked in the free preview. Opens the ways to unlock this result.
Locked in the free preview. Batch runs unlock with a pass.
Locked in the free preview. Query results unlock with a pass.
For education only, not investment advice: no tool here tells you what to buy, sell or hold. Results use only the figures you enter, the files you load (read in your browser, never uploaded) and the published rules each page names. Check them against your broker's or exchange's own figures, and consider a licensed or registered adviser for advice on your situation.
About the Trading Expectancy & Break-even Win Rate Calculator
A win rate means little without the size of the wins and the losses. This calculator puts them together: the expectancy, what each trade earns on average after your costs, in money and in R (multiples of your average loss), the win rate you need to break even with your payoff, with and without costs, the profit factor before and after costs, and your payoff ratio.
Start from your averages, or paste your own trade results (money or R, one a line) and the same figures come from the results themselves, with the spread of the average, its 95% interval, the longest losing streak and the deepest drawdown of the running total. A table and a chart show the expectancy at every win rate from 20% to 80% at your payoff.
It works in any currency and for any market. It shows what your own figures add up to; it says nothing about what the next trades will do. Nothing you type leaves your browser.
How to use it
- Choose your averages, or your own results; then whether your figures are in money or in R.
- With averages: enter your win rate, average win and average loss. With results: paste one result a line, as copied from your journal or spreadsheet.
- Enter the costs a trade that are not in your figures yet (commission, fees, slippage), and your trades a month if you want the monthly figure.
- Read the expectancy, the break-even win rate and the profit factor, and look up other win rates in the table and on the chart.
- Copy the summary or download the table as CSV — with a pass, or after unlocking this result.
Examples
Win rate 40%, average win 300, average loss 100, costs 10 a trade
Expectancy +50.00 a trade = +0.50R · break-even win rate 27.5% (25.0% without costs) · profit factor 2.00 before costs, 1.76 after
Win rate 40%, average win 3R, average loss 1R, costs 0.1R; 1R = 100
+0.50R a trade = +50.00
10 results: 300, −100, −100, 300, −100, 0, 250, −100, −120, 350
4 wins, 5 losses, 1 at zero · expectancy +68.00 a trade · profit factor 2.31
Common uses
- Check whether a win rate and payoff still make money after costs.
- Find the win rate a target payoff needs, before you trade a new set of rules.
- Work out the expectancy, profit factor and losing streak of the trades in your journal.
- Compare the same figures in money and in R.
The formulas
- Expectancy E = p·W − (1 − p)·L − c: the expected value of one trade, each outcome times its probability, less the costs c (p the win rate, W the average win, L the average loss).
- In R (1R = the average loss): E_R = p·b − (1 − p) − c_R, with the payoff ratio b = W ÷ L and c_R = c ÷ L. With figures already in R, 1R is your own unit.
- Break-even win rate: the p that makes E zero, p = (1 + c_R) ÷ (b + 1); without costs 1 ÷ (b + 1).
- Profit factor = Σ wins ÷ Σ losses; after costs, every result less c (a win smaller than the costs becomes a loss).
- From your results: p is the share of results above zero, W and L the averages of the wins and the losses, and E their mean less c. The standard error of the mean is its standard deviation ÷ √n and the 95% interval ±1.96 standard errors (the normal approximation of the central limit theorem, rough below 30 results).
Reading the results
- Expectancy above zero means your figures add up to a gain a trade on average; it does not say the next trades will. The table shows how quickly it changes with the win rate.
- Break-even win rate: below it your figures lose money. Costs raise it: with a payoff of 3, costs of 0.1R a trade take it from 25% to 27.5%.
- Profit factor above 1 means the wins outweigh the losses; after costs it is the honest one.
- The 95% interval of the average from your results shows how much a few trades can mislead: when it crosses zero, the results cannot tell an edge from none.
- Monthly figure: your expectancy times your trade count, not a forecast.
What it leaves out
- Changes in your results: the averages of past trades can drift as markets and your own trading change.
- Taxes, and costs that are not in your figures or the cost field.
- Risk: two systems with the same expectancy can have very different drawdowns. The risk of ruin calculator shows the odds of a deep one, and the Kelly criterion calculator the bet size growth is fastest at.
Limitations
- Averages hide the spread of results: one large trade can carry an average, which is why the results view also shows the expectancy without your largest win.
- The 95% interval uses the normal approximation, which is rough for fewer than about 30 results.
- Up to 10,000 results, in one unit (money or R).
- Results of exactly zero count as trades but neither as wins nor as losses.
Privacy
Everything happens in your browser. What you enter or open here is not uploaded or stored by MySmartCoPilot.
Frequently asked questions
What do I get without a pass?
Without a pass, Trading Expectancy & Break-even Win Rate Calculator shows the expectancy per trade in full, with the first rows of each table (up to 3) and a watermarked chart; every other figure is hidden. Until you unlock it, the result can’t be downloaded or copied. A Pro, Premium or Ultimate pass, a one-time payment that never renews, unlocks the full result. The pricing page lists the passes and their prices.
What is trading expectancy?
What a trade earns on average: the win rate times the average win, less the loss rate times the average loss, less the costs. With 40% wins of 300, losses of 100 and 10 of costs: 0.4 × 300 − 0.6 × 100 − 10 = +50 a trade.
What win rate do I need to break even?
With a payoff ratio b (average win ÷ average loss) and costs c_R in R, p = (1 + c_R) ÷ (b + 1). Wins three times the losses need 25% without costs and 27.5% with costs of a tenth of the average loss.
What is a good profit factor?
Above 1 the wins outweigh the losses; below 1 they do not. The calculator gives it before and after costs, and the after-costs figure is the one that decides whether your figures make money. How high it should be depends on how many trades it rests on.
What is expectancy in R?
The same average measured in units of risk: 1R is the average loss (or the risk you set, with figures in R). +0.50R means a trade makes half of what a losing trade loses, whatever the size of the account.
How many trades do I need for a reliable figure?
More than most people use. The results view shows the standard error and the 95% interval of the average: with 20 trades the interval is often wide enough to include zero, which means the results cannot yet tell an edge from luck.
Does the monthly figure tell me what I will earn?
No. It is your expectancy times the number of trades you entered, a way to put the average in money; actual results vary around it, and losing months happen even with a positive expectancy.